72
Developing an Israeli Grand Strategy toward
a Peaceful Two-State Solution
in a maelstrom that continues to this day. In Israel, the Sharon
government began its term, coping with the great wave of
terrorist attacks throughout the Second Intifada, leading
to Operation Defensive Shield. The operation effectively
returned full security control of the West Bank to the IDF.
In 2004 Arafat died and was replaced by Abu Mazen, who
opposed the violent riots and terrorist attacks. Prior to that,
in 2002, President Bush presented his "roadmap", a policy
plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and PM Sharon
announced his support of the plan in the 2002 Herzliya
Conference. That year the "Saudi Initiative" (later becoming
the "Arab Peace Initiative") was made public, a proposal that
has never received official response from the government of
Israel except for some token statements.
In 2005, Sharon led a unilateral disengagement from the
Gaza Strip, then "left the political stage" after the 2006 general
elections. Ehud Olmert, who left the Likud Party with him,
replaced him as prime minister.
In contrast to his ideological upbringing, and even before
his term as prime minister, Ehud Olmert believed and stated
openly that the dream of Greater Israel was no longer viable,
and a compromise should be pursued with the Palestinians
regarding a division of land. This approach consolidated
further on his appointment to prime minister.
In 2007, after seven years of intifada, an agreement for security
cooperation was signed with the PA, and on November of that
year the Annapolis Conference was held to pave the way to
a continued peace process. The conference concluded with
a joint statement supporting the "roadmap" and determining
the completion of negotiations by the end of 2008.
On February 16, 2008, in a meeting held in the prime minister's
house in Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert presented Abu Mazen with
his suggestions for a permanent agreement and a resolution
to the conflict. The details of this proposal were not published
at the time, but some have leaked over the years. Olmert
himself made it public in 2013, detailing his proposal for land
exchange, ceding Israeli sovereignty over the Temple Mount,
and the establishment of a committee that would include
representatives of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Palestine, Israel,
and the US to oversee management of the "Holy Basin". Also,
Olmert offered a (symbolic) return of 5,000 refugees to the
State of Israel. The map presented to Abu Mazen planned for
the settlement blocks to cover 6.5% of the West Bank, and
was marked with the lands proposed to the Palestinians as
compensation. This was the most generous proposal ever
put forth to the Palestinians, even more so than the "Clinton
Parameters" agreed to by the Israeli government in Taba
during December 2000. Abu Mazen never responded to
Olmert's offer, and the latter resigned in 2009 due to reasons
unrelated to the diplomatic process.
So, what happened, and why? Explanations have been
provided by various Palestinians, including Abu Mazen, but
the real reasons were never revealed to the public.
Second Netanyahu Premiership (2009 until
today)
This period begins on March 31, 2009 following the elections
for the 18th Knesset. It is an ongoing period divided into
three stages:
2009-2013 – Israel's 32nd government
2013-2015 – Israel's 33rd government
2015 – Israel's 34th government
The Likud Party was the major party in all three governments,
and led by Benjamin Netanyahu, unquestionably its central
figure. The governments were comprised of various coalitions
of left/center, center, and right-wing parties. These included
the Labor Party, Ha'Atzma'ut ("Independence") Party (after
Ehud Barak and others seceded from the Labor Party), the
Kadima ("Forward") Party for a brief time under Mofaz's
leadership, Hatnuah ("The Movement") led by Tzipi Livni,
Yesh Atid ("There is a Future"), and of course the right-wing
parties – Habayit Hayehudi ("The Jewish Home") and Yisrael
Beitenu ("Israel is Our Home"). The Haredi parties included
in the 32nd and 34th governments habitually leaned to the
right of the political map.
The current government – and
its composition – is the most right-wing Israel has known
in many years
.
It was during the early days of Netanyahu's career, and
probably due to serious pressure from the US, that he took
the two steps that show some measure of pragmatic policy
and shift to the political center:
1.
The Bar-Ilan speech
, primarily the principle agreement
to the establishment of a Palestinian state (with the
following terms: demilitarization, recognition of Israel as
the Jewish state, a unified Jerusalem as Israel's capital,
and relinquishment of the Palestinian right of return).
2. Freezing Jewish construction in Judea and Samaria for
a period of ten months.
In September 2010, the government (under Netanyahu's
leadership, and with US mediation), began direct talks with
the PA. These negotiations were unsuccessful and generated
no progress in the diplomatic channel.
OnMarch 18, 2013, the 33rd government of Israel (Netanyahu's
third premiership) was formed, a government that included
the political center (Lapid, Livni). This was a turbulent time
marked by numerous security events – the kidnapping
of the three boys from Gush Etzion (Operation Brother's
Keeper), and Operation Protective Edge. The turmoil within
the coalition, particularly in the right-wing parties during and
after Operation Protective Edge, resulted in early elections
to conclude this government's term.
During the 2015 election campaign, Netanyahu stated that
the current climate does not allow for the establishment of a
Palestinian state. He also promised that the government he
would establish after elections would be formed of the Likud's
"natural partners", meaning right-wing and Haredi parties.
